It Starts With Pitching

There are a lot of different reasons and a lot of different games or stretches one can point to as to why the St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs this year. And we have extra time this offseason to discuss, debate, and ponder them all.

But let’s begin by remembering one simple truism in baseball. It starts with pitching.

As much as the St. Louis Cardinals expected to hit for more power in 2016, the team was still set up to be reliant on starting pitching. John Lackey was gone via free agency and Lance Lynn was out due to Tommy John surgery, but Adam Wainwright was returning and Mike Leake was brought in to round out the rotation.

Waiting in the wings were the likes of Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney, and Tyler Lyons with hopes that Alex Reyes wouldn’t be needed until September.

Gonzales and Cooney didn’t make it out Spring Training before injury hit. Lyons had a very good season and was in line to pick up some starts before injury ended his season just as the team entered the stretch run. Reyes was everything advertised and more, but only made five starts.

But the starting rotation of Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, and Jaime Garcia failed to measure up to expectations in 2016. The group combined for 148 starts, which is an impressive number. However, in 49 of those starts the pitcher was unable to go more than 5.0 innings and sixteen of those were 4.0 innings or less.

While on the positive side, Jaime Garcia made his most starts and pitched his most innings since 2011, he also failed to get past the 5th inning in 16 of his 30 starts. Eight of those were 4.0 innings or less.

Not counting his final start, Wacha went 5.0 innings or less nine times, as did Leake. Martinez had eight, Wainwright seven.

Manager Mike Matheny is certainly open to some scrutiny for his use of the bullpen, but when forced to pull a starter early in the game it will eventually take a toll on the bullpen and that was certainly a factor this season. And that bullpen was forced to reshuffle as Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness dealt with injuries.

The Cardinals had only two complete games. By comparison, San Francisco had 10.

The Cardinals starters pitched 934.1 innings this season. Last year, they went 979.2 IP.

But before we pin the responsibility of missing the postseason on the starting rotation, let’s also consider this–how many times did the defense fail to make a play that resulted in an early exit for the starters whether it be because of runs that followed or the pitch count being elevated?

St. Louis made 107 errors in 2016, sixth most in MLB and up from 96 committed the season before. And those numbers don’t factor in plays not made.

The impact can certainly be seen for a pitcher like Leake, who in 2015 saw batters hit just .174 against him on ground balls. This season that number was at .261.

Injuries to Jhonny Peralta, Aledmys Diaz, and Matt Carpenter contributed to some of the defensive shuffling that affected those numbers, but for a team that in the past has carried the likes of a Pete Kozma for defense there did not seem to be the same willingness to do so this year–despite the power surge from the offense.

You can argue that keeping Lackey would’ve resulted in this or that, but there also has to be the realization made between the defense he pitched in front of this season and that of the Cardinals. It was not apples to apples

Bottom line…like most things with the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals squad, there were a combination of things that factored into the starting pitching not being what was expected.

Are we watching a passing of the torch from Wainwright to Martinez as the ace of the staff or will Waino come charging back in 2017? Remember, last offseason the Cardinals were set on acquiring David Price. There is no such free agent on the market this year.

The extra month of rest, a returning Lance Lynn, Alex Reyes for a full season–all of those things could help for 2017. But so will better defense and it probably wouldn’t hurt to bring a couple of extra arms to provide more depth as injuries always seem to happen.

Not too mention, what kind of workload Michael Wacha will be able to handle remains unknown. Garcia may or may not be back as the Cardinals hold a team option on the lefty.

photo credit: Bill Greenblatt/UPI