SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) — Imagine this: The No. 1 team in the country wins — and it's considered a big upset.
It could happen.
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A rarity awaits on Saturday night, when No. 1 Miami (8-0, No. 1 College Football Playoff ranking) visits No. 4 Notre Dame (7-1, No. 11 CFP). The Fighting Irish are more than a touchdown favorite at most sportsbooks after the injury to star Miami wide receiver Malachi Toney in what could mark the first time in 12 years that the AP No. 1 was that large of an underdog.
The most recent instance of an AP No. 1-ranked team being an underdog in a regular-season game by at least seven points is believed to have come in 2014, when Mississippi State (which featured quarterback Dak Prescott, now of the Dallas Cowboys) was a touchdown underdog to then-No. 4 Alabama (which featured running back Derrick Henry, now of the Baltimore Ravens). Mississippi State lost that game, 25-20.
Clemson was ranked No. 1 for the national title game against Alabama on Jan. 11, 2016, but a 6.5-point underdog.
“Toney’s a big part of the offense," DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello said Friday. "You want to look at the offensive production and for that team, he’s half of it. He's a big deal. From a betting perspective, sometimes these injuries happen and the team rallies around that. ... And sometimes, the line gets a little more carried away than it should.”
Avello said he wouldn't be shocked if the line dipped below seven points by kickoff Saturday night.
“I don’t think the general public is going to just say, ‘OK, this is a gimme for Notre Dame,’" Avello said.
It's hardly unprecedented for a No. 1 team to be an underdog; it has happened twice already this season. Ohio State was a 2.5-point underdog when it lost to Texas, and Georgia — which originally was favored — ended up as a 2.5-point underdog when it beat Alabama. Both of those games were on the road, like this one is for No. 1 Miami.
What makes this one different is the actual size of the point spread. Miami could end up as the biggest top-ranked underdog in nearly 14 years — going back to when No. 1 Notre Dame was a 10-point underdog to Alabama in the national championship game on Jan. 7, 2013.
Alabama wound up winning that game, 42-14.
Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, also thinks the line could dip below seven points by game time. As of Friday afternoon, Caesars had 58% of bettors taking the Notre Dame moneyline, but 73% of bettors taking Miami with the spread.
“I think it’s a little high on Notre Dame right now,” Feazel said.
Toney's injury also affected the betting lines in the Heisman Trophy race. He was one of the favorites before the injury; now with him expected to be out until December, Toney is off most Heisman boards — with Miami quarterback Darian Mensah (+175) a slight underdog to Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith (+160) according to Caesars.
“If Mensah is able to get this win, in really the best game Miami has on its schedule, it's going to be really hard to kind of take that Heisman Trophy away from him,” Feazel said.
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