Gov. Pritzker Leads Senator Bailey By Nine Points.

CHICAGO - In the first Illinois Poll after the June primary, Governor JB Pritzker leads his Republican opponent State Senator Darren Bailey by nine points. The first-term Governor was the choice of 48.9% of the respondents, while the downstate State Senator received 39.0% of the vote.

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The results are part of the latest Illinois poll, conducted July 17-19, 2022. It is a semi-monthly survey conducted since 2001 by Victory Research, an independent polling company based in Chicago. The poll of 1208 likely Illinois general election voters has a margin of error of 2.82% and was conducted by live callers. Respondents answered on landlines (411) and cell phones (797).

Pritzker, a first-term Governor, fell below the 50% mark for the first time in 2022, according to the poll, in both the head-to-head matchup with Bailey and a question about whether he has earned another term in office. In the January Illinois Poll, for example, Pritzker’s “re-elect” number was 51.7%, and in June it was 50.2%. Now it is 47.3%. In the head-to-head matchup with Senator Bailey, Governor Pritzker received 55.2% in January, 51.8% in June, and now it is 48.9%.

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Geographically, Governor Pritzker holds a wide lead over Senator Bailey in heavily Democratic Chicago (78.0-17.3%), and a narrow lead in Suburban Cook County (49.8-42.3%). Bailey leads in every other part of the state, with his strongest region being his home area of Southern Illinois (52.0-34.0%).

In a perhaps ominous sign for the Governor, despite the bruising GOP primary for Governor, Republicans appear mostly united behind Senator Bailey, who has 81.3% of GOP voters, only slightly less than Governor Pritzker’s 82.4% of Democratic voters, according to the poll. In addition, Independent voters favor Bailey over Pritzker (47.8-36.7%).

Pritzker’s percentage falling below 50% could be significant if history is a guide. In the previous two off-year elections, with a Democrat (Barack Obama in 2010 and 2014), the incumbent Democratic Governor (Pat Quinn), finished election day with less than 50% of the vote. In 2010, Quinn received 46.8% of the vote, eking out a victory over downstate State Senator Bill Brady by approximately 32,000 votes statewide. In 2014, Quinn lost to outsider Bruce Rauner, receiving 46.4%.

The poll is in line with other recently published polls. A poll by GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio in June showed Governor Pritzker’s vote total at 50% even, while a Morning Consult poll released this week had the Governor’s approval rating at 51%.

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